It’s often assumed in American politics that candidates do or should cater to the "middle" of the political spectrum in what is dubbed the median voter theory. The logic being that ‘Independents/moderates’ are crucial for securing a majority in elections. This theory, however, makes unsupported assumptions about Independent voters that aren’t supported with data.
In this post, we provide an example of how we can use data to help our partners create
strategies that lead to real success.
Median Voter Strategies: “So High School”
Why are our politics so polarized if the percentage of registered Independents has increased over time? In this post, we covered that although most Americans think they are Independents, more than half are closeted—exhibiting more straight-ticket voting than voters who admit their partisan loyalties off the bat.
Yet, 10% of the electorate does still consist of True Independents (AKA self-identified Independents who don’t lean closer to the Democratic or Republican Party). In the battle for the soul of America’s competitive battleground states, candidates focus their efforts on persuading those True Independents, the 10% of the electorate, in what is deemed the “‘median voter theory.”
The median voter theory has become ‘Folklore’ and is not deserving of a favorable ‘Reputation’. While there are many reasons to ditch the median voter theory (despite its irresistibly catchy name), we’re going to focus on two.
“Down Bad Crying at Democracy”
Reason #1: True Independents are less informed about politics than partisans. While the average registered voter answered just two out of four questions correctly on Gradient’s pop civics quiz, True Independents still have less civics knowledge than the average voter. Roughly 12% of all partisans received an A+ (100%) vs. just 5% of True Independents.
| Percent of Registered Voters who Answered Correctly by Partisan Loyalty | ||||
|
Question & Correct |
Average Voter | Strong Partisan (R or D) | Weak or Leaning Partisan (R or D) |
True Independent |
|
What job or political office does John Roberts currently hold?
|
63% | 65% | 63% | 55% |
|
What job or political office is now held by Olaf Scholz?
|
59% | 61% | 57% | 58% |
|
How long is the term of office for a U.S. senator?
|
52% | 54% | 53% | 40% |
|
On which of the following does the U.S. federal government currently spend the least?
|
32% | 32% | 31% | 39% |
|
Significantly higher than the average voter Significantly lower than the average voter |
||||
Independent Minds, Missing Votes!
Reason #2: Even if a candidate gains the support of True Independents, it doesn’t mean they’ll also gain their vote. Approximately two in ten (23%) eligible and registered True Independents didn’t vote in presidential elections from 2012-2020. In contrast, 14% of weak partisans/partisan leaners and 5% of strong partisans abstained from voting in presidential elections from 2012-2020.
Maybe the median voter theory should remain alongside skinny jeans, ankle socks, and side-parts in the late twentieth century after all.
Do you have a campaign strategy that needs revising? Get in touch and we can see how we can help. As my colleague Cory Manento says, “Friends don’t let friends ask the wrong political questions.” Gradient is committed to using novel, but proven strategies to uncover hidden truths. We know it’s just too costly to be wrong in this political environment.
*Data was weighted to reflect the demographic characteristics of U.S. registered voters based on U.S. Census benchmarks.
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