The United States is often described as being politically divided. Yet, we’ve seen an increase in the number of Independents over time. How can this be? We ran a survey with 1,025 registered voters and found that while 24% identified as Independents, less than half of them truly exhibited independent voting behavior, suggesting many align more closely with a party than they admit. This post highlights the gap between perceived and actual political independence among voters, the importance of ‘measurement’, and how substantive expertise is essential in being able to ask the right survey questions.
Hidden in Plain Sight: Are Independent Voters Closeted Partisans?
Ever heard someone claim they vote for the person, not the party? Do you have a friend, family member, or co-worker who claims to be an Independent voter? Odds are these people are either lying to you or themselves. When we surveyed 1,025 registered voters and asked whether they identified as Democrats, Republicans, or Independents, roughly one in four voters (24%) insisted they’re as Independent as a teenager with a driver’s license, no curfew, and a fresh copy of On the Road (that they’re suddenly calling ‘transformative’). But in reality… less than half truly are Independents.
We investigated whether self-proclaimed Independents lean closer to the Democratic or Republican party and the strength of self-identified Democrats and Republicans' partisanship.
What did we find? Fewer than half of self-proclaimed Independents said they didn’t lean towards either party. This means that when push comes to shove, true Independent voters (aka: voters who show no partisan allegiances) comprise just 10% of the American electorate.
Fence-Sitters or Left Leaners? Decoding the Politics of Independents.
If we can’t take leaners at their first word, you might ask why we should believe anything they say at all. Fair question. Even though only one in ten Americans hold firm to their aisle seat, Independent leaners (aka: closeted partisans) actually behave in a more partisan manner than self-described Democrats and Republicans.
A sizable majority of Democratic Leaners voted for the Democratic candidate in the last four presidential election cycles. Closeted Democrats, in particular, exhibited Democratic solidarity at the voting booth; they were more likely to say they voted (or planned on voting) for Biden and Harris than Weak Democrats.
The Conservative Cloak: Why Some ‘Independents’ Are Right at Heart
Like their cross-the-aisle cousins, Closeted Republicans (aka: Republican Leaners) had their true red hats colors to accompany their “I Voted” sticker. A large majority of Republican Leaners claimed to have voted for the Republican presidential candidate since 2016.
In fact, roughly three-quarters of Republican Leaners voted for Trump in 2020 and 89% planned to vote for him in 2024—whereas just 70% of Weak Republicans voted (or planned to vote) for Trump in 2020 and 2024.
Lesson of the story? When your aunt says “I’m not a Democrat or Republican – I’m Independent,” you should relentlessly harass her until she admits which direction she leans. It’s how we heal, people.
Do you have a political and social question that requires honest answers ? Get in touch and we can see how we can help.
*Data was weighted to reflect the demographic characteristics of U.S. registered voters based on U.S. Census benchmarks.
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