List Experiments
Uncover real opinions about sensitive topics
You get the real opinions on sensitive topics
What you get
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The prevalence of a private opinion in a population
The probability of someone in the sample privately agreeing with a sensitive statement is deduced from the difference in the average number of endorsed items between the control and treatment groups.
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The prevalence of a public opinion in a population
The percent agreement with a sensitive statement when directly asked informs the extent to which an opinion is publicly endorsed in a population.
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The degree to which opinions about a sensitive topic are private
The level of a topic's sensitivity is presented by taking the difference between the probability of endorsing a sensitive item when asked privately versus publicly.
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Stories from the field
Assessing Fears in the Early Days of COVID-19
Trendlines Opinion Survey
In March of 2020, the spread of COVID-19 was just ramping up. In such a chaotic time, directly asking respondents about their fears may have led to inaccurate findings. To get around this, Gradient conducted a list experiment to uncover how truly afraid Americans were about knowing someone who contracted COVID-19.
Using a list experiment was valuable as Americans were twice as likely to publicly say they were worried about someone they knew contracting COVID-19 than they privately, truly, felt.
While 66% of Americans publicly stated they were worried, only 33% were actually worried when asked through an experimental condition where their privacy was guaranteed.
Read the full story →
Private Versus Public Opinions about Diversity in the Judicial System
Trendlines Public Opinion Survey
The Supreme Court confirmation of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson brought with it questions about America’s opinions on adding diversity to major political positions. If asked directly most individuals would say they support increases in diversity as to not seem racist. Thus, to better gauge how Americans really feel about diversity, a list experiment is needed.
The fruitfulness of the list experiment was evident when comparing the public and private opinions across political parties. Roughly one in four Republicans (24%) publicly admitted it's important to have more Black Americans in positions of power in the judicial system—the same proportion who agreed with the statement, even when guaranteed privacy (25%).
In contrast, while 69% of Democrats publicly agreed it’s important to have more Black Americans in positions of power in the judicial system, that number decreased to under half (47%) when responding to the statement privately.
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Populace Insights: Private Opinion in America
Client Case Study
Americans don’t feel like they live in a democracy of opinion—that is, Americans don’t feel comfortable voicing their true thoughts when they are counter to perceived societal consensus. This lack of public honesty creates widespread preference falsification to the point that systems and institutions are designed with a purpose with which many Americans actually disagree.
We designed a landmark study, using several list experiments, to measure the difference between publicly stated and privately held opinions for several sensitive statements about politics, culture, and society ranging from abortion to COVID-19 to what’s taught in public schools.
Americans of all different backgrounds feel pressure to self-censor. Across all demographics, every subgroup of Americans had large gaps between private and public opinion—oftentimes large enough to drive a bus (hopefully not full of migrants) through—depending on the topic and sensitive statement.
Download the case study →
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